Five substitutions are quietly changing V-League’s fate: I was wrong, and I am ready to apologize

The 86th minute, score 1-1 at Lạch Tray Stadium. Head coach Chu Đình Nghiêm took off the centre-forward and put on another centre-back. The stand fell silent — not the expectant silence of a crowd, but the silence of people realizing something had ended. Sitting in the press area, I felt as if a truck loaded with spreadsheets was slowly driving over the football I grew up with. Before the era of five substitutions, the final fifteen minutes belonged to the brave. Now they belong to those who can count. Since the start of the 2026-26 season, V-League has continued to apply five substitutions as recommended by FIFA. Teams no longer rotate across three competitions; they rotate inside a single match. On Công an Hà Nội’s bench sits Nguyễn Quang Hải, on Thép Xanh Nam Định’s bench sits Nguyễn Tiến Linh, and the national team has Nguyễn Hoàng Đức. This is the generation trained to play at high tempo, but coaches are using them as insurance cards rather than attacking weapons. I began the season with a hypothesis: five substitutions would create more late goals. Someone could throw on two fresh wingers, press high and change the game. The data after round 12 tells me the opposite. Goals scored in the 76th-90th minute are down 18 percent compared with last season, while draws are up 14 percent. Coaches are not using substitutions to attack; they are using them to close down the opponents’ counter-attacking lanes. From my experience watching matches over the past seven seasons, the real difference appears in the 60th minute. In the past, a coach had to use three substitutions like three bullets for one target. Now he can fire five bullets, so he fires in every direction. Counter-attacking teams like TP.HCM once had an advantage; when the opponent introduces two fresh full-backs, the space for counter-attacks disappears. A V-League match no longer ends according to the logic of the first half. Looking at the second half of the round-12 match between Hải Phòng and Thanh Hóa, I saw a typical example. Six minutes after the break, the home team made two centre-back changes; by the 70th minute, they brought on another defensive midfielder. No one thinks they are using all five substitutions, because they act as if they only had three but want to use five to reinforce. The biggest difference between three and five substitutions is not quantity but mentality: three substitutions force you to accept risk; five substitutions allow you to erase risk. One number struck me even more: in round 8, Bình Dương had 17 shots in the first half but only three after coach Lê Huỳnh Đức made two substitutions in the 55th minute. Pressure did not rise; it deflated. I once had a truth I had carved out myself, until Mbappé smashed it to pieces. With this rule, I have another truth to test: is individual play being polished away by digitalised coaching? My current answer is yes. When a coach can change three positions at once, a young player loses the chance to survive the storm. He is taken off the moment the opponent accelerates, instead of being forced to adapt. Nguyễn Văn Trường of Hà Nội FC exploded for 12 minutes in the 70th minute against SLNA, but in the 78th minute he was pulled out after losing a physical duel. Five substitutions turn an individual’s moment into a game of numbers. I compared several data sources, including the squad depth index on VangBong.vn: the leading group is 31 percent higher than the bottom group. The rich replace five players without losing quality; the poor replace five players just to prove they have substitutes. Numbers are never wrong; only the person reading numbers thinks he is always right. I once believed this rule would help small teams survive with better fitness. I was wrong. In the last eight rounds, the bottom three teams have scored only two goals in the 76th-90th minute. Small teams no longer have the strength to attack, because they spend too much energy patching holes. The pandemic podcast taught me that silence is also a form of interview. I stayed silent for a moment before asking: if five substitutions are so bad, why does Europe see more late goals in the same period? Maybe the problem is not the rule, but the way Vietnamese coaches read the game. I could be wrong. V-League has never had real squad depth, so the team with the stronger bench will dominate. Instead of blaming the rule, I should blame the defensive mindset of the people running football. I remember the 2026 season, when Hà Tĩnh held Viettel 2-2 with a team full of young players. At that time, the big clubs could not use substitutions because they did not have enough quality on the bench. This season, Công an Hà Nội have bought aggressively, Nam Định have kept their key players, and the advantage goes to the team with the deeper bench. Five substitutions are like a lift: it takes the rich up faster and pushes the poor into the basement without using the stairs. The summer 2026 transfer window makes the picture even clearer. Clubs are not spending on a single star; they are spending on two full-backs, a defensive midfielder and a sweeping centre-back. Release clauses, wages, signing fees — all point to one goal: completing the bench. When the transfer window opens, the real story is not the striker who scores 20 goals, but the name sitting on the bench in the 75th minute. I write this note in my notebook, because without a careful look, people would think V-League is getting richer. In fact, the rich are simply getting richer. I do not deny the benefits: five substitutions help bigger teams avoid injuries and give young players more minutes in domestic competitions. But in V-League, where the calendar is dense and bench quality is uneven, that benefit belongs only to a small group. When the rule was written, people said it protected player health. When the rule is applied, I see it protecting the bench — and the bench is where the richest owners put their money. Emotion is not the enemy of reason; it is a silent analyst. My emotion says Vietnamese football is losing the goals that last forever. Reason says I am comparing it with a golden age that will never return. In 2026, small teams lost because they ran out of energy; in 2026, they lose because they are replaced by better human beings. The substitution rule only reflects the rich-poor divide that has existed for a long time. If the goal count rises at the end of the season, I will write an apology right here in this corner. I am used to holding a microphone to say sorry. I will follow the next three rounds, especially matches with a clear gap in class. If goals in the 76th-90th minute continue to fall, V-League must accept a fact: the five-substitution rule is turning the final twenty minutes into administrative time. If the goal count bounces back, I will say I was wrong. Football does not need me to be right; football only needs someone who follows long enough to tell the true story. And I — a Vietnamese journalist living in Lyon — am still here, waiting for the surprise that the numbers have not yet captured.